Crime Falls as America Heads Toward a Historic Low in Homicides

A New Benchmark for Public Safety

The United States is on pace to record one of the lowest homicide rates in modern history during President Donald Trump’s first year back in office, according to a new report from the independent Council on Criminal Justice. If current trends continue through the end of 2026, the nation could finish the year with its lowest homicide rate in more than a century.

The findings come from data collected across 30 American cities and paint a picture of broad improvement in public safety. Compared with the same period in 2025, homicides have fallen by 18 percent, representing approximately 215 fewer killings during the first half of the year alone.

This is early evidence that the Trump Administration’s public safety agenda is producing results. While the report’s authors caution that crime trends rarely have a single cause, the timing of the decline has naturally drawn attention as the administration emphasizes stronger law enforcement, intensified immigration enforcement, and expanded federal involvement in high crime areas.

Who Reported the Findings?

The report was produced by the Council on Criminal Justice, an independent, nonpartisan criminal justice policy and research organization. Rather than relying on surveys or estimates, the council gathers crime statistics directly from police departments and other law enforcement agencies.

Its latest report tracked 13 different categories of crime. Depending on the offense, data came from as many as 36 cities, although some categories included fewer jurisdictions because of differences in reporting standards and data availability.

The 18 percent homicide decline compares the first half of 2026 with the same period in 2025. According to the report, if this trend continues through the remainder of the year, the final national picture would represent one of the strongest public safety improvements in decades.

Crime Declines Extended Beyond Homicide

The improvements were not limited to murders.

The report found decreases in nine of the 13 crime categories it tracked. Carjackings, aggravated assaults, and residential burglaries all declined during the first half of 2026.

Residential burglaries fell 13 percent compared with last year. Even more striking, burglaries are now roughly 50 percent lower than they were before the pandemic in 2019.

Violent crime also became less deadly. According to Council on Criminal Justice President and CEO Adam Gelb, the lethality of violent crime declined by 23 percent. In other words, while violent crimes still occurred, a smaller percentage resulted in death.

Not every category improved. Shoplifting increased 5 percent, while domestic violence incidents, sexual assaults, and drug offenses also showed modest increases compared with the same period last year. Even so, the report notes that drug offenses remain below their pre pandemic levels.

How Were the Numbers Tracked?

One reason the report has attracted attention is the way the data were assembled.

Rather than relying on projections, researchers compiled crime statistics directly from participating police departments and law enforcement agencies. The council then compared year over year trends while also measuring changes against the pre pandemic crime levels of 2019.

The report also acknowledged that crime trends are not perfectly uniform across the country. About one third of the sampled cities experienced increases in homicides despite the overall national decline.

Norfolk, Virginia recorded a 64 percent increase in homicides, while San Francisco experienced a 55 percent increase. Looking back to 2019, only Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis still reported higher homicide totals than before the pandemic.

Those exceptions illustrate that local conditions still matter, even as the broader national trend moves sharply downward.

What Is Adam Gelb Saying?

Adam Gelb, who leads the Council on Criminal Justice, believes the overall improvement deserves careful study.

He noted that falling crime rates are appearing in cities with widely different political leadership, policing strategies, economic conditions, housing markets, and prosecutorial approaches.

“Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map in cities with different political leadership, different housing and economic conditions, different policing and prosecution and violence reduction strategies and different levels of federal enforcement activity,” Gelb said.

Although he stopped short of identifying a single cause, Gelb emphasized the significance of the results.

“This is one of the most significant public safety developments in decades. It means lives are being saved, families are spared trauma and communities are regaining stability.”

The Trump Administration’s Case

The Associated Press also quoted John Roman of the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center, who observed that conservative supporters of President Trump are likely to point to intensified immigration crackdowns and the deployment of the National Guard in cities such as Los Angeles and Memphis as contributing factors behind the decline.

Those policies have been central themes of the Trump administration’s public safety strategy. The administration has consistently argued that stronger immigration enforcement, increased support for law enforcement, and a greater federal presence in cities facing serious crime problems would improve public safety.

While Roman said crime trends are likely influenced by multiple factors, including reduced drug activity and post pandemic federal investments in local communities, supporters of the administration argue that the dramatic nationwide decline occurring during Trump’s first year back in office strengthens the case that his law and order approach is delivering measurable results.

A Public Safety Success Story

No major crime trend has a single explanation, and even the report’s authors caution against attributing the decline to one policy alone. Crime is influenced by economic conditions, policing strategies, demographics, community programs, and countless local factors.

Even so, the available data point toward a remarkable improvement. An 18 percent reduction in homicides, fewer violent crimes ending in death, and declines across most major crime categories represent one of the strongest public safety performances in decades.

For the Trump administration these figures as evidence that its emphasis on law enforcement, immigration enforcement, and restoring public order is coinciding with meaningful improvements in national safety. If the current trajectory continues through the end of 2026, America will finish the year with homicide levels that would have seemed almost unimaginable during the violent crime surge that followed the pandemic.