Trump Sees Cuba Following Venezuela’s Path as Havana Rushes Reforms

Cuba Could Be Next

President Donald Trump is signaling that Cuba may become the next major focus of his Western Hemisphere strategy after the successful U.S. operation that removed Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro. While Trump stopped short of announcing any specific plans, his recent comments suggest he believes Cuba is increasingly vulnerable and could ultimately follow a path similar to Venezuela.

Asked by Axios whether Cuba could experience an operation similar to Venezuela, Trump answered simply, “Possibly. It’s possible.”

His comments come as Cuba faces its worst economic crisis in decades while simultaneously unveiling the largest package of free market reforms since Fidel Castro’s communist revolution, leading many observers to question whether Havana is scrambling to adapt before U.S. pressure grows even stronger.

Trump Says Geography Favors the United States

Trump emphasized that Cuba presents a far different strategic challenge than conflicts in the Middle East because of its proximity to the United States.

“These places are close by. Whereas if you look at Iran, that’s a very long trip,” Trump said.

“You know, I flew to that area a few times… you’re flying for 18 hours. Venezuela is relatively close and Cuba is a hopscotch.”

Trump also noted that Cuba lacks one of Venezuela’s greatest strategic assets.

“Venezuela has oil. Cuba doesn’t.”

Instead, he described Cuba in more practical terms.

“Cuba has a nice property and they have nice shoreline.”

The president has repeatedly indicated that he would prefer a peaceful outcome rather than military conflict. He has also said Cuba is eager to improve relations with Washington.

“Cuba wants to talk very badly,” Trump said.

“We’re going to have Marco get involved.”

That reference was to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose Cuban heritage and long record of opposition to the Havana government make him one of the administration’s leading voices on Latin America.

The Venezuela Playbook

Trump’s recent comments fit into a broader strategy that has increasingly treated Cuba and Venezuela as connected challenges.

According to reporting summarized in the source material, the administration has already applied many of the same pressure tactics used against Venezuela before Maduro’s removal.

Those measures include tougher economic sanctions, restrictions on energy supplies, criminal charges against senior Cuban figures, expanded military deployments throughout the Caribbean, and repeated public warnings that “Cuba is next.”

Trump has also publicly questioned how long Cuba’s current system can survive.

“Cuba is ready to fall. Cuba looks like it’s ready to fall. I don’t know if they’re going to hold out.”

He later added:

“Other presidents have looked at this for 50, 60 years, doing something. And, it looks like I’ll be the one that does it.”

Unlike Venezuela, however, analysts note that Cuba lacks an obvious replacement government waiting in the wings, making any transition considerably more complicated.

Maximum Pressure Appears to Be Taking Effect

Whether by coincidence or as a direct response to increasing American pressure, Cuba has now announced what many observers describe as the most sweeping economic reforms since the 1959 revolution.

The government approved an astonishing 176 separate reform measures.

These reforms would dramatically reduce state control over large portions of the Cuban economy.

Among the changes are:

• Expanded opportunities for private businesses.
• Direct importing and exporting without state intermediaries.
• Free hiring of employees by private firms.
• Authorization of private banks.
• Investment by Cubans living abroad.
• Permission for international fast food chains to operate in Cuba.
• Greater decentralization of economic decision making.

Political scientist Luis Carlos Battista described the significance of the changes.

“Elements that for decades were listed as pillars of the revolutionary economy, such as the state monopoly on foreign trade and the centralization of productive forces, have been dismantled.”

For a communist government that has spent decades defending centralized economic planning, the reforms represent a remarkable policy shift.

Cuba Says It Is No Threat

As pressure from Washington increases, Cuban officials have also sought to reassure the United States that the island poses no military danger.

Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, grandson of former President Raúl Castro, argued that Cuba is not an American security threat.

“Cuba doesn’t even slightly represent a threat” to the United States.

He also acknowledged that Cuba’s economy must fundamentally change.

“Our country must seek a path to economic development where we must inevitably diversify our economy, diversify the way we do business and diversify the way we do investments.”

President Miguel Díaz-Canel likewise indicated that Cuba is studying the market oriented communist systems developed by China and Vietnam rather than continuing the island’s traditional centrally planned model.

An Economy Under Extraordinary Stress

The reforms come as Cuba struggles through one of the most severe economic crises in its modern history.

The tightening U.S. embargo has sharply reduced fuel imports into the island.

The resulting shortages have contributed to electrical blackouts lasting as long as 20 hours each day while disrupting transportation, health care, education and everyday commerce.

Cuban officials have acknowledged that implementation of the new reforms will still depend heavily on relief from American sanctions, while outside analysts warn that bureaucratic inefficiency and investor concerns remain significant obstacles.

Even so, several observers argue that Cuba has little time left.

Professor Paolo Spadoni summarized the urgency facing Havana.

“If Cuban leaders hope to survive this unprecedented crisis and the pressure from the United States, they must move quickly with the implementation of reform and the achievement of tangible results.”

A Peaceful Transition Would Be Trump’s Preferred Outcome

Trump has consistently suggested he would rather see Cuba evolve peacefully than require a more confrontational approach.

His comments about Cuba wanting negotiations, combined with the administration’s reliance on sanctions and economic pressure, suggest that Washington believes internal reform would be preferable to direct intervention.

Whether Cuba’s unprecedented embrace of market reforms represents genuine ideological change or simply an attempt to relieve mounting pressure remains an open question.

What is increasingly clear is that Trump’s comparison between Cuba and Venezuela is no longer rhetorical alone. As Havana dismantles long standing pillars of its communist economy while openly insisting it poses no threat to the United States, Cuba appears to be responding to an administration that has made clear it intends to keep the pressure on until meaningful change occurs.